OUR PRODUCTS & SERVICES
Independent and Incisive Emerging Market Reports
Asset Allocation Advice For Emerging Markets
In collaboration with LXM Group
Proprietary Database of Governance Classifications for Over 9,000 Companies Globally
Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance. More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both the relative and absolute performance of individual equity markets.
Our primary focus is on what are currently defined as emerging and frontier markets, though we expect these terms to become increasingly redundant as the concept of universal convergence in economic and governance development gives way to a more country-based approach, regardless of index classification.
We will make some of our analysis and thoughts freely available on this website, but much of the more specialist data and recommendations is available on a subscriber only basis along with the full text of our 'Governments and Markets' report.
JOHN PAUL SMITH
Ecstrat Founder John-Paul Smith has thirty four years' market experience including roles as:
EMERGING MARKET EQUITY STRATEGIST
Widely credited as being the first analyst to predict the 1998 Russian financial crisis.
HEAD OF EM EQUITY & CHIEF STRATEGIST
PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT
Managed & developed the EM equity team, achieving top decile performance and a rise in AUM from less than $2bn to over $10bn, followed by four years as the firm's Chief Global Strategist across asset classes.
Ecstrat's methodology has been acclaimed by the financial press and its work is regularly quoted by the Financial Times, Bloomberg & Economist
Bloomberg, October 2017
Why This Stock Bear Sees No Hope for Emerging Markets
"The founder of research firm Ecstrat Ltd., renowned for his early warning of Russia’s equity-market plunge in 1998 while at Morgan Stanley, is finding plenty of places to direct his pessimism. Among his latest concerns: authoritarian regimes in China and Russia as well as governments in Thailand, Turkey and the Philippines shifting in that direction.”
The Economist, October 2014
The bear case for EM
“Given all this, it is worth contemplating an interesting summary of the bearish RM case from John Paul Smith at Ecstrat. At Deutsche, he was known as that rare, but honourable, character; the strategist who wasn’t bullish on his own sector.”