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Founder

OUR PRODUCTS & SERVICES

Independent and Incisive Emerging Market Reports

Asset Allocation Advice For Emerging Markets

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In collaboration with LXM Group

Proprietary Database of Governance Classifications for Over 9,000 Companies Globally

OUR FOCUS

Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance. More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both the relative and absolute performance of individual equity markets.

Governance
Macro Risk
Market Risk

Our primary focus is on what are currently defined as emerging and frontier markets, though we expect these terms to become increasingly redundant as the concept of universal convergence in economic and governance development gives way to a more country-based approach, regardless of index classification.

 

We will make some of our analysis and thoughts freely available on this website, but much of the more specialist data and recommendations is available on a subscriber only basis along with the full text of our 'Governments and Markets' report.

FOUNDER

JOHN PAUL SMITH

 

Ecstrat Founder John-Paul Smith has thirty four years' market experience including roles as: 

EMERGING MARKET EQUITY STRATEGIST 

MORGAN STANLEY

Widely credited as being the first analyst to predict the 1998 Russian financial crisis.

1995-2001

HEAD OF EM EQUITY & CHIEF STRATEGIST

PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT

Managed & developed the EM equity team, achieving top decile performance and a rise in AUM from less than $2bn to over $10bn, followed by four years as the firm's Chief Global Strategist across asset classes.

2001-2010

EQUITY STRATEGIST

Deutsche Bank

2010-2014

Ecstrat's methodology has been acclaimed by the financial press and its work is regularly quoted by the Financial Times, Bloomberg & Economist

PRESS MENTIONS

Bloomberg, October 2017

Why This Stock Bear Sees No Hope for Emerging Markets

"The founder of research firm Ecstrat Ltd., renowned for his early warning of Russia’s equity-market plunge in 1998 while at Morgan Stanley, is finding plenty of places to direct his pessimism. Among his latest concerns: authoritarian regimes in China and Russia as well as governments in Thailand, Turkey and the Philippines shifting in that direction.”

BEN BARTENSTEIN
 

Financial Times, May 2017

An investment taxonomy that actually makes sense

“Fascinating new research by JP Smith at EcStrat consultancy has produced a new taxonomy which divides investment markets into nine different governance regimes. They make a very useful guide to investing.”

JOHN AUTHERS

The Economist, October 2014

The bear case for EM


“Given all this, it is worth contemplating an interesting summary of the bearish RM case from John Paul Smith at Ecstrat. At Deutsche, he was known as that rare, but honourable, character; the strategist who wasn’t bullish on his own sector.”

BUTTONWOOD’S NOTEBOOK