Latest Research

Brexit; Unintended Consequences

Summary: Expect further volatility from UK leadership changes, although we may be oversold. The worse markets get, the less likely Brexit becomes. The end result of […]

July 6th, 2016|Research|

Why Brexit (Probably) Won’t Happen

Summary: the nature of western representative democracy and vested interests makes Brexit highly unlikely. The only way it is likely is if markets stage a large […]

June 27th, 2016|Research|

Will Brexit Break EM’s Back?

Financial markets are in turmoil today as the market failed to price in an exit of Britain from the EU, with sterling falling almost 10% […]

June 24th, 2016|Exstracts|

Politics, Governance & China

Politics, Governance & China

The below is an excerpt from our June Government’s and Markets Report for subscribers.

Global equity markets have entered a stand-off between fundamental factors, […]

June 7th, 2016|China, Exstracts, Research|

Erdoğan gets his wish

“Erdogan once said that democracy, for him, is a bus ride … ‘once I get to my stop, I’m getting off’ ”

Jordan’s King Abdullah recalling a conversation […]

May 5th, 2016|Exstracts|

EM: A rally, not a secular turning point

This is an excerpt from our May Governments and Markets report.

In our 2016 outlook reports published in December, we correctly forecast that the Fed would be forced […]

April 29th, 2016|Research|

China; Stimulus papering over the cracks

In the report ‘China; stimulus papering over the cracks’ which was published on Friday, we once again focus on developments in China, where we believe that the recent improvement […]

April 5th, 2016|Research|

Governance, Valuations and the Crisis of State Capitalism

In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country weightings.

We provide more detail on each […]

February 11th, 2016|Research|

China and the EM Ugly Contest

This an overview of our latest Governments & Markets EM update. Subscribers should have received the full report via e-mail, please contact us if you haven’t.

China and the EM […]

January 21st, 2016|Research|

Aramco and Gulf Wealth De-distribution

In a recent interview with the Economist, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and head of the Supreme Council of Aramco Mohammad bin Salman noted that the government was […]

January 14th, 2016|Research|